**NAME_________________ Score ______ / 50**

**STAT 200: Introduction to Statistics**

**Homework #2**

**Clearly Indicate Your Final Answer**

**Total Points Earned:**

**1. ______ / 2**

**2. ______ / 2**

**3. ______ / 2**

**4. ______ / 3**

**5. ______ / 4**

**6. ______ / 5**

**7. ______ / 7**

**8. ______ / 3**

**9. ______ / 3**

**10. ______ / 2**

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**14. ______ / 5**

**Score ______ / 50**

1. (2 points) Let A denote the event of placing a $1 straight bet on the Florida Play 4 lottery and winning. The chance of event A occurring is 1 in 10,000. What is the value of P(A)? What is the value of P(A)?

2. (2 point) MicroSort’s YSORT gender-selection technique is designed to increase the likelihood that baby born from in vitro fertilization (IVF) will be a boy. In updated results, from a test of MicroSort’s YSORT gender-selection technique, 291 births consisted of 239 baby boys and 52 baby girls.

a. (1 point) Based on these results, what is the probability of a boy born to a couple using MicroSort’s YSORT method?

b. (1 point) Does it appear that the technique is effective in increasing the likelihood that a baby will be a boy?

3. (2 points) In a *New York Times* / CBS News poll, respondents were asked if it should be legal or illegal to use hand-held phones while driving. One hundred forty-one said that it should be legal, 663 said that it should be illegal.

a. (1 point) What is the probability of randomly selecting someone who believes it should be legal to use a hand-held cell phone while driving?

b. (1 point) Consider an event “unlikely” if its probability is less than or equal to 0.05. Is it unlikely to randomly select someone who believes that it should be legal to use a hand-held cell phone while driving?

4. (3 points) Suppose that a family has 4 kids. Assume that the probability of getting a boy or girl is equally likely.

a. (1 point) List the entire sample space of outcomes for this event.

b. (1 point) What is the probability of getting exactly three girls and one boy (in any order)?

c. (1 point) What is the probability of having all four kids be the same gender?

5. (4 points) Men have XY (or YX) chromosomes and women have XX chromosomes. X-linked recessive genetic diseases (such as juvenile retinoschisis) occur when there is a defective X chromosome without a paired X chromosome that is good. In the following, represent a defective X chromosome with lowercase x, so a child with the xY pair of chromosomes will have the disease and a child with XX, XY, or Xx will not have the disease. Each parent contributes one of the chromosomes to the child.

a. (1 point) If a father has the defective x chromosome and the mother has good XX chromosomes, what is the probability that a *son* will inherit the disease?

b. (1 point) If a father has the defective x chromosome and the mother has good XX chromosomes, what is the probability that a *daughter* will inherit the disease?

c. (1 point) If a mother has one defective x chromosome and one good X chromosome and the father has good XY chromosomes, what is the probability that a *son* will inherit the disease?

d. (1 point) If a mother has one defective x chromosome and one good X chromosome and the father has good XY chromosomes, what is the probability that a *daughter* will inherit the disease?

6. (5 points) In a research experiment, on group of physicians was given bottles of epinephrine labeled with a concentration of “1 milligram in 1 milliliter of solution,” and another group of physicians was given bottles labeled with a ration of “1 milliliter of a 1:1000 solution.” The two labels describe the exact same amount, and the physicians were instructed to administer 0.12 milligrams of epinephine. The results were reported in the New York Times. The table below lists the numbers of correct and wrong dosage amounts calculated by the physicians.

Correct Dosage Calculation

Wrong Dosage Calculation

Concentration Label

(“1 milligram in 1 milliliter solution”)

11

3

Ratio Label

(“1 milliliter of a 1:1000 solution”)

2

13

a. (1 point) If one of the physicians is randomly selected, what is the probability of getting one who calculated the dose incorrectly?

b. (1 point) If one of the physicians is randomly selected, what is the probability of getting one who made a correct dosage calculation or was given the bottle with a concentration label?

c. (1 point) For the physicians given the bottles labeled with “Concentration,” find the percentage of wrong dosage calculations. What is the probability associated with this percentage?

d. (1 point) For the physicians given the bottles labeled with “Ratio,” find the percentage of wrong dosage calculations. What is the probability associated with this percentage?

e. (1 point) Does it appear that either group did worse? What do these results imply about drug labels?

7. (7 points) A “1-Panel-THC” test for marijuana had the following results: Among 143 subjects with positive test results, there were 24 false positive results. Among 157 negative results, there were 3 false negative results.

a. (1 point) If one of the test subjects is randomly selected, find the probability that the subject tested positive or used marijuana.

b. (1 point) If one of the test subjects is randomly selected, find the probability that the subject actually used marijuana. Do you think that the result reflects the marijuana use rate in the general US population?

c. (1 point) What is the probability of a correct test result?

d. (2 points) If 2 subjects are randomly selected without replacement, what is the probability that they both had incorrect test results? Consider an event “unlikely” if its probability is less than or equal to 0.05. Is the event of 2 incorrect results unlikely?

e. (2 points) If 3 of the subjects are randomly selected without replacement, what is the probability that they all had true negative results? Consider an event “unlikely” if its probability is less than or equal to 0.05. Is the event of 3 true negative results unlikely?

8. (3 points) My mother and oldest sister were both born on the 4th of July. For the following questions, ignore leap years and assume that the 365 different days are equally likely.

a. (1 point) What is the probability that a randomly selected person is born on the 4th of July?

b. (1 point) What is the probability that two randomly selected individuals were born on the same day?

c. (1 point) What is the probability that two randomly selected people were both born on the 4th of July?

9. (3 points) According to FBI data, 12.4% of burglaries are cleared with arrests. A new detective is assigned to five different burglaries.

a. (1 point) What is the probability that at least one of them is cleared with an arrest?

b. (1 point) What is the probability that the detective clears five burglaries with arrests?

c. (1 point) What should we conclude if the detective actually clears five burglaries with arrests?

10. (2 points) According to research by Pinhero, et.al. of Google, there is a 2% rate of catastrophic disk drive failure in a year.

a. (1 point) If all of your computer data is stored on a hard drive with a backup stored on an external hard drive, what is the probability that, during a year, you can avoid catastrophe with at least 1 working hard drive?

b. (1 point) If copies of all your computer data are stored on three independent hard drives, what is the probability that during a year, you can avoid catastrophe with at least one working drive?

11. (3 points) Answer the following questions about the Illinois Lottery.

a. (1 point) In the Illinois Little Lotto game, you win the jackpot by selecting five different whole numbers from 1 through 39 and getting the same five numbers (in any order) selected by the lottery commission. What is the probability of winning a jackpot in this game?

b. (1 point) In the Illinois Pick 3 game, you win a bet by selecting three digits (i.e. 0-9) with repetition allowed and getting the same three digits in the exact same order that they are later drawn by the lottery commission. What is the probability of winning this game?

c. (1 point) In the Illinois Little Lotto game, you win the jackpot by selecting five different whole numbers from 1 through 39 and getting the same five numbers (in any order) selected by the lottery commission. What is the probability of winning a jackpot in this game?

12. (3 points) A clinical test on humans of a new drug is normally done in three phases. Phase I is conducted with a relatively small number of healthy volunteers. For example, Phase I of bexarotene involved only 14 subjects. Assume that we want to treat 14 healthy humans with this new drug, and we have 16 suitable volunteers available.

a. (1 point) If subjects are selected and treated *in sequence* (so that the trial is discontinued if anyone displays any adverse side effects), how many different sequential arrangements are possible if 14 people are selected from the 16 that are available?

b. (1 point) If 14 subjects are selected from the 16 that are available, and the 14 selected subjects are all treated at the same time, how many different treatment groups are possible?

c. (1 point) If 14 subjects are randomly selected and treated at the same time, what is the probability of selecting the 14 youngest subjects?

13. (7 points) The table below describes the results from 10 births from 10 different sets of parents. The random variable *x* represents the number of girls among the 10 children. This data set is also available in the Microsoft Excel file “Homework 2 Data Sets.xlsx”

**Number of Girls, x**

**P(x)**

0

0.001

1

0.010

2

0.044

3

0.177

4

0.205

5

0.246

6

0.205

7

0.177

8

0.044

9

0.010

10

0.001

a. (1 point) Find the mean for the numbers of girls in 10 births.

b. (1 point) Find the standard deviation for the numbers of girls in 10 births.

c. (1 point) Find the probability of getting exactly 1 girl in 10 births.

d. (1 point) Find the probability of getting 1 or fewer girls in 10 births.

e. (1 point) Which probability is relevant for determining whether 1 is an unusually low number of girls in 10 births: the result from part (c) or part (d)?

f. (1 point) Is 1 an unusually low number of girls in 10 births? Why or why not?

14. (5 points) The table below describes results of roadworthiness tests of Ford Focus cars that are 3 years old (based on data from the Department of Transportation). The random variable *x* represents the number of cars that failed among the six that were tested for roadworthiness. This data set is also available in the Microsoft Excel file “Homework 2 Data Sets.xlsx”.

**x**

**P(x)**

0

0.377

1

0.399

2

0.176

3

0.041

4

0.005

5

0.001

6

0.001

a. (1 point) Find the mean for the numbers of cars that failed among the six cars that are tested.

b. (1 point) Find the standard deviation for the numbers of cars that failed among the six cars that are tested.

c. (1 point) Find the probability of having exactly three cars fail among the six cars tested.

d. (1 point) Find the probability of having three or more cars that fail among the six cars tested.

e. (1 point) Is 3 an unusually high number of failures? Why or why not?

Next to these stages, there are four types of loyalty. The first type is no loyalty: this can be seen as the typical action supporter that is giving money to fundraiser friends/family. There is no connection between the action supporter and War Child, non-loyal customers add a small amount to the financial account of the organization. The second type is inertia loyalty: this type can be a potential Friend, the person is giving a donation because they always have done it. This person is not loyal to one charity because there is no deeper connection and is easy with switching from charity to charity. This person is reachable to get a deeper connection with to become a potential Friend. It is needed to give the potential Friend attention and please the person. The third type is latent loyalty: this type is based on situational influences such as time, social life, physical factors, reasons why to support charity and the mood of the person. Latent loyalty means that there are repeated purchases. The last type is premium loyalty: this is the greatest type an organization can get. This type indicates the loyal Friend who is proud to discover more and tell about War Child to everyone. (Griffin, 2010) Using the stages and types of loyalty, War Child will get a better understanding about their potential Friends. Increased loyalty can give benefits to more respects of the company. Increased loyalty will be cost saving because there will be reduced marketing costs, more positive word-of-mouth, satisfied loyal customers whereby the failure costs decrease. (Griffin, 2010) 1.2.4 Customer relationship management Kotler (2014, p. 9) stated in the book ‘’Principles of marketing’’ that customer relationship management (CRM) can be mentioned as delivering superior customer value and satisfaction by building and maintaining profitable customer relationships. (Kotler, 2014) Using a suitable approach for the action supporters will lead to charitable giving. To build and maintain profitable customer relationships, customer relationship management need to be implemented. It is very important to deliver customer value and make the action supporters satisfied. By doing this,>

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